By Steve EvansMy inevitable Oscar breakdown...
I’m going with La La Land to win 9 Oscars this evening -- including Best Picture -- out of a record-tying 14 nominations (equaled only by All About Eve and Titanic, both of which won Best Picture -- for 1950 and 1997).
Also tossing off the bold prediction that La La Land will be the first film since Silence of the Lambs (1991) to win the top 5 – picture, director, actor, actress and screenplay. It's a charming and ridiculously romantic throwback to the Hollywood musicals of yesteryear, though the unsentimental ending is probably essential for it to be a serious Best Picture contender in this dark and cynical year of 2017.
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington (Fences) are seen as frontrunners for Best Actor, but Denzel's won twice already and his latest work is essentially a filmed play with non-stop exposition. It's nothing terribly impressive. Affleck is trying to live down sexual harassment allegations, which don't play well with image-conscious Academy voters. That leaves Ryan Gossling for La La Land.
The only other serious Best Picture contender is Moonlight; not your customary Hollywood fare. A beautiful little film, but well outside the experience of most Academy voters, who adore a flick like La La Land because it reflects their obsessive love of the movie business. Moonlight will have to settle for the nomination. Mel Gibson's Hacksaw Ridge was thrilling and inspirational, though probably too old-fashioned to gain any traction for a win. Arrival is science fiction, and you can count on your thumb the number of times a sci-fi flick won Best Picture. Hidden Figures sanitizes the civl rights struggle behind the story of African American women scientists who led NASA to glory. If it had more bite, it might be a real contender. Hell or High Water is fantastic, but it's a cops-n-robbers genre picture that hasn't found a huge audience, even though it should. I didn't see Lion and don't know anyone who wants to.
So if any film could stage a Best Picture upset -- and really startle the hell out of me this year -- it would be Manchester by the Sea. But god a'mighty, that was an overlong, depressing slog through misery and grief with unlikable characters, especially Affleck's. I'm betting voters have enough of that to endure in real life right now. So sorry, Sullen Casey by the Sea, but you're down and out, and so's your film.
That will delight Oscars host Jimmy Kimmel. Expect him to indulge tonight in his entertaining pseudo-feud with Matt Damon, a producer on Manchester.
My own cross to bear will involve toggling back and forth between The Walking Dead and the Oscars. Both are can't-miss shows for me, though TWD will at least be available for streaming on-demand tomorrow.
Due to the interminable length of the awards ceremony, people may not realize that only 24 Oscars are handed out each year. Yep, we’re talking 30 minutes of intrigue stretched over a four-hour period. You know you’re gonna watch, anyway. Below is a complete list of all nominees by category with my picks marked ***** (((For the last 30 years I’ve averaged an 88 percent accuracy rate so bet with confidence, film fans.))) If you want a sure thing, bank on Emma Stone's win for La La Land. It's all but a done deal.
Here's how I predict the 89th Academy Awards will go down:
Also tossing off the bold prediction that La La Land will be the first film since Silence of the Lambs (1991) to win the top 5 – picture, director, actor, actress and screenplay. It's a charming and ridiculously romantic throwback to the Hollywood musicals of yesteryear, though the unsentimental ending is probably essential for it to be a serious Best Picture contender in this dark and cynical year of 2017.
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington (Fences) are seen as frontrunners for Best Actor, but Denzel's won twice already and his latest work is essentially a filmed play with non-stop exposition. It's nothing terribly impressive. Affleck is trying to live down sexual harassment allegations, which don't play well with image-conscious Academy voters. That leaves Ryan Gossling for La La Land.
The only other serious Best Picture contender is Moonlight; not your customary Hollywood fare. A beautiful little film, but well outside the experience of most Academy voters, who adore a flick like La La Land because it reflects their obsessive love of the movie business. Moonlight will have to settle for the nomination. Mel Gibson's Hacksaw Ridge was thrilling and inspirational, though probably too old-fashioned to gain any traction for a win. Arrival is science fiction, and you can count on your thumb the number of times a sci-fi flick won Best Picture. Hidden Figures sanitizes the civl rights struggle behind the story of African American women scientists who led NASA to glory. If it had more bite, it might be a real contender. Hell or High Water is fantastic, but it's a cops-n-robbers genre picture that hasn't found a huge audience, even though it should. I didn't see Lion and don't know anyone who wants to.
So if any film could stage a Best Picture upset -- and really startle the hell out of me this year -- it would be Manchester by the Sea. But god a'mighty, that was an overlong, depressing slog through misery and grief with unlikable characters, especially Affleck's. I'm betting voters have enough of that to endure in real life right now. So sorry, Sullen Casey by the Sea, but you're down and out, and so's your film.
That will delight Oscars host Jimmy Kimmel. Expect him to indulge tonight in his entertaining pseudo-feud with Matt Damon, a producer on Manchester.
My own cross to bear will involve toggling back and forth between The Walking Dead and the Oscars. Both are can't-miss shows for me, though TWD will at least be available for streaming on-demand tomorrow.
Due to the interminable length of the awards ceremony, people may not realize that only 24 Oscars are handed out each year. Yep, we’re talking 30 minutes of intrigue stretched over a four-hour period. You know you’re gonna watch, anyway. Below is a complete list of all nominees by category with my picks marked ***** (((For the last 30 years I’ve averaged an 88 percent accuracy rate so bet with confidence, film fans.))) If you want a sure thing, bank on Emma Stone's win for La La Land. It's all but a done deal.
Here's how I predict the 89th Academy Awards will go down:
=============================
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
*****La La Land*****
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
*****La La Land*****
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
=============================
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
*****Ryan Gosling, La La Land*****
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
*****Ryan Gosling, La La Land*****
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
=============================
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
*****Emma Stone, La La Land*****
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
*****Emma Stone, La La Land*****
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
=============================
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*****Mahershala Ali, Moonlight*****
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
=============================
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*****Viola Davis, Fences*****
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
*****Viola Davis, Fences*****
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
=============================
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
*****Kubo and the Two Strings*****
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
=============================
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
*****Silence*****
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
*****Silence*****
=============================
COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
*****Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them*****
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Allied
*****Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them*****
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
=============================
DIRECTING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
*****La La Land*****
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
*****La La Land*****
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
=============================
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Fire at Sea
*****I Am Not Your Negro*****
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
*****I Am Not Your Negro*****
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
=============================
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
Extremis
4.1 Miles
*****Joe’s Violin*****
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Extremis
4.1 Miles
*****Joe’s Violin*****
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
=============================
FILM EDITING
Arrival
*****Hacksaw Ridge*****
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
=============================
Arrival
*****Hacksaw Ridge*****
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
=============================
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
*****The Salesman*****
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
*****The Salesman*****
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
=============================
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
*****Suicide Squad*****
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
*****Suicide Squad*****
=============================
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Jackie
*****La La Land*****
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Jackie
*****La La Land*****
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
=============================
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
*****"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land*****
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
*****"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land*****
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
"Can’t Stop The Feeling" from Trolls
Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
"City Of Stars" from La La Land
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
"The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
"How Far I’ll Go" from Moana
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
=============================
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
*****La La Land*****
Passengers
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
*****La La Land*****
Passengers
=============================
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
*****Blind Vaysha*****
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
=============================
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
*****Silent Nights*****
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
*****Silent Nights*****
Sing
Timecode
=============================
SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
*****La La Land*****
Sully
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
*****La La Land*****
Sully
=============================
SOUND MIXING
Arrival
*****Hacksaw Ridge*****
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Arrival
*****Hacksaw Ridge*****
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
=============================
VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
*****The Jungle Book*****
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
*****The Jungle Book*****
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
=============================
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
*****Moonlight*****
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
*****Moonlight*****
=============================
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water
*****La La Land*****
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
*****La La Land*****
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
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